The following article analyzes the current political situation in Canada, after Justin Trudeau’s resignation. It is presumed that the opposition parties, after they return following prorogation, will bring a non-confidence vote against the Liberal government, leading to a new election. There is no certainty, however, that this will happen. The reasons for this uncertainty are detailed in the following article. Canada is going to be experiencing a precarious time in its history.
On January 6, 2025, Justin Trudeau announced that he will be stepping down as Liberal leader as soon as a new leader has been selected by the Liberal Party. Trudeau also announced that Parliament has been prorogued until March 24, 2025. The proroguing of Parliament means that all ongoing legislation, including the detested Online Hate Bill and the amendments to the Income Tax Act targeting Pregnancy Care Centres, has died on the Order Paper. However, when it returns, Parliament can agree to restore the legislation to the stage it held prior to prorogation. This is unlikely to happen if Parliament passes a non-confidence vote against the Liberal government on Parliament’s return.
Trudeau’s Prorogation Decision
Trudeau has ended the current session of Parliament, contrary to the wishes of the public, and what has emerged is that a majority of MPs want to bring in a motion of non-confidence against the government that would lead to a new election. The purpose of Trudeau’s prorogation was to provide the Liberal Party time for a new leader to be elected, and to prevent the non-confidence motion. Another advantage of prorogation is that it saves Trudeau from immediate accountability from the fallout of the Hogue Commission on Foreign Interference, which will be submitting its report at the end of February. This report is expected to reveal the Liberal Party’s collaboration with Communist China, not just in elections, but in other serious matters as well. The proroguing of Parliament also means that the Liberals will not have to answer for their $1 billion green slush fund. The purpose of the fund was to encourage environmentally friendly energy projects. Trudeau hand-picked the Chair of this fund, Annette Verschuren, and all the members of its Board. In July 2024, the Ethics Commissioner, Mario Dion, ruled that Verschuren had violated the Conflict of Interest Act by funnelling money to her own company. In a scathing report, the Commissioner also detailed that the Liberal Minister of Industry, François Philippe Champagne, had been warned about this conflict of interest demonstrated by the Chair, but allowed her to remain in her position. A few months previously, the Auditor General had reported that Board Members were funding their own companies as well as those of other insider Liberals. A Parliamentary Committee had demanded that the Liberal government provide documents relating to this fund. The Liberals refused to do so. As a result of this refusal, the Conservatives stalled Parliament, blocking it with a point of privilege, which has paralyzed Parliament since September. Trudeau, by prorogation, believes that he will no longer be pressured to provide the documents on the slush fund.
Trudeau will also undoubtedly see the prorogation period as an opportunity, without Parliamentary oversight, to continue to pursue his woke policies. He is likely to make appointments to the Senate and the Judiciary with members who will perpetuate his policies after he is gone. He will probably use the time to also pass regulations by way of Order-in-Council since they only require the approval of his rubber-stamp cabinet. Simply put, in the absence of Parliament, Trudeau will continue his authoritarian rule without having to be held accountable.
The Liberal Leadership Race
Arrangements for the Liberal leadership race are now being formulated. In an attempt to get out in front of any “foreign interference” allegations, the Liberals amended their bylaws this month to require that a person must now be “a Canadian citizen, have status under the Indian Act, or be a permanent resident of Canada” to be eligible to be a “registered Liberal” and therefore eligible to vote for the new leader. The minimum age to be a “registered Liberal” did not change—one must be at least fourteen (14) years of age.
The pool of leadership candidates is shallow and expected to include some former members of Trudeau’s incompetent cabinets as well as others who mimic Trudeau’s agenda. This means that the leadership race will change nothing as the candidates will have the same values and obsessions as Trudeau. For example, Chrystia Freeland, will likely enter the race. Also, Mark Carney, former Governor of the Banks of Canada and of England is expected to run. Both of these candidates are former Board members of the World Economic Forum. Freeland is a natural born authoritarian, who enthusiastically endorsed the illegal invocation of the Emergencies Act, and illegally froze the bank accounts of some participants of the Freedom Convoy, requesting that the RCMP investigate them. Freeland is also a consummate liar. She advised the media, for example, that she did not drive, claiming that she took the subway when in Toronto. She failed to mention, however, that as a cabinet minister, she had a chauffeur and government provided car at her beck and call at all times. This lie was further exposed a few weeks subsequent to her claim, when she was stopped on an Alberta highway for speeding and issued a ticket. By such actions, Freeland can be fairly described as just another Justin Trudeau in a skirt.
The other leading candidate, Mark Carney, is a climate change fanatic who tried to force the Bank of England to join a group of national banks to work towards eliminating climate change. He currently serves as a climate change consultant to the United Nations. Carney’s career has been spent wining and dining with the world’s elites. He detested the Freedom Convoy and described its participants as “seditious”, which means “one who incites resistance to or insurrection against lawful authority”. Carney has no interest in ordinary people, and he sees himself as a reigning monarch delivering edicts to the ignorant public in furtherance of the World Economic Forum’s global agenda.
In short, no matter who is selected, the current crop of want-to-be leaders are non-starters because the Liberal Party’s policies of the last ten years have been a disaster. Liberals not only need a new leader, they also need an entirely new platform.
Will There Be a Federal Election in 2025?
When Parliament returns on March 24, there will supposedly be a very short matter of time before a confidence vote is held. That vote is to take place after the Liberal government presents its Speech from the Throne, which outlines its program for the coming session. Following this Speech there is an automatic confidence vote on it. If the government loses that vote then, by convention, the Prime Minister must request that the Governor General dissolve Parliament and call an election. The Canada Elections Act requires that an election campaign must be at least 37 days in duration. This means that a federal election would be expected to take place in May or early June. This may not happen.
The Unreliability of NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh
The above narrative regarding a May/June election is based on the premise that the NDP Leader, Jagmeet Singh, will support the non-confidence vote. However, there is no certainty this will occur. This is because the NDP Leader has never before had such power and influence as he has had via his alliance with the Liberals. He may well decide to renew the Supply-and-Confidence Agreement with a new Liberal leader for further “perks” (a possible seat at the cabinet table) or his party providing more billion-dollar programs which the country can ill afford. This may be the situation even though Mr. Singh stated at the time of Trudeau’s resignation that “the Liberals do not deserve another chance, no matter who leads the Liberals”. Mr. Singh has shown himself to be an unreliable politician as his actions do not follow his words. Mr. Singh (who is also associated with the World Economic Forum) will likely base his support on providing the “new” leader with the opportunity to address the threat posed to Canada by the Trump tariffs stating, for example, that if Mark Carney attains the leadership that Canadians need his strong economic background at this sensitive time. Trump’s threats will undoubtedly be the predominant theme of the Throne Speech. Should there be a new agreement between Mr. Singh and a new Liberal government, there is a further problem. It is that the certainty of an October 25, 2025 election, as set out in the Elections Act, may be postponed to a later date. This is due to the fact that Canada’s constitution, the BNA Act, as confirmed by the Charter of Rights, states that a federal election must be held five years, if not sooner, after the previous election – not the four years currently set by the Canada Elections Act. Therefore, as the last federal election was held on September 20, 2021, under constitutional law, the next election can be postponed until September 20, 2026. There is nothing to stop a Liberal/NDP alliance from amending the Canada Elections Act to include this later date. Should the obnoxious NDP/Liberal relationship re-emerge, the Conservatives’ only option will be to once again bring Parliament to a stand-still, as they effectively did in the pervious session of Parliament, in order to try to reach a settlement of the problem.
The Polls
According to the most recent Angus Reid Poll, the Liberals approval rating is 16%. Even with a new leader, this damaged Liberal government will not gain many seats. Historically, when the Liberal vote collapses, the NDP picks up more seats. However, the NDP poll results remain stubbornly hovering around 20%. Consequently, it is certain that NDP leader Singh will lose both power and influence with decreased seats after an election. The Bloc Quebecois is polling well in Quebec and is expected to gain enough seats to form the official opposition in the next Parliament. According to the Angus Reid Poll, the Conservative party’s approval rating is at 45%, and the Conservatives will form the next government with a large majority of seats.
The Future Conservative Government
Although the Conservatives should have a large majority in the next Parliament, its government will face a monumental task in healing this broken country. There will be a strong pushback from the woke elites who will not surrender their power easily. The federal bureaucrats in Ottawa who traditionally are left-leaning, will be resisting the necessary change in direction by a Conservative government. The woke legacy media will not be fair in its reporting on Conservatives, and the Trudeau appointed Senate will try to block Conservative legislation, to say nothing of a Trudeau-appointed progressive judiciary. This Gordian Knot that Canada has become will have to be resolved slowly and with patience and care. It will not be easy to right the sinking ship of Canada. Canadians, however, do not usually act with trumpets blowing or banners waving, they just do what must be done and get on with it. Hopefully this is what will happen as Canada deals with its enormous challenges.