This is the second in a series of commentaries focusing on the question of culture change and how to bring about change for the better.
Free and democratic societies are made possible by a number of factors, including a minimum social consensus, political compromise and free market economies. At a practical level, successful human interaction, whether at the societal or personal level, is often governed by our ability to persuade. Indeed, without persuasion, civil society would be impossible.
Simply put, persuasion is about influence. Persuasion is a means to influence our beliefs, attitudes, or behaviours. Most commonly, it is the ability to get someone else to agree with us. We are constantly being bombarded by persuasion. Some forms of persuasion are obvious, such as TV ads trying to persuade us that only this brand of dishwashing powder can get our dishes sparkling and squeaky clean while saving the environment. Other forms are more subtle, such as price points at $9.99, instead of something priced at $10.00 which seems too much! Even more subtle, and dangerous, is the nightly news, which tries to persuade us of a particular narrative that is more likely to be fake news then real news! Social media platforms, such as Twitter and Facebook are trying to influence us 24/7, most often with fake and/or censored “news” or outright propaganda.
Of course, political discourse is all about persuading the electorate to vote for you. Unfortunately, these days the form of persuasion used is seldom that of a reasoned and honest debate about policies. Political persuasion is seldom a lofty principled discussion, but invariably ends up with politicians using taxpayer money to bribe their way into office by offering the electorate more “free stuff”.
Tools of Persuasion
There are many tools available to try and persuade us to believe in something. And “believe” is the right word, for unless you’ve had first-hand experience of something, you are basically being asked (persuaded) to believe that what you are being told is true. Indeed, most of what we think we know is actually based upon belief rather than personal experience. Let’s briefly examine four of the more common persuasion tools we should be wary of: Polls; Surveys; Statistics; and Experts.
Polls and Surveys
One of the most notorious tools used in politics is the opinion poll, a method designed to get you to either believe like the “majority” on a given issue or believe in a trend that suggests a new social consensus. It is important to remember that opinion polls DO NOT tell you what people are thinking, rather they are used to tell you what to think. Political polling in particular is well known as a tool of outright manipulation rather than simple persuasion. Depending upon how the question is asked, and which group of “representative Canadians” are asked, you can basically guarantee the answer you’re looking for. Shameless, we know, but it happens all the time. A well-known example of a “rigged” question is found in the story of the two seminarians, Patrick and Michael, who were trying to figure out if it was permissible to smoke and pray simultaneously. Looking for a definitive answer, each asked his superior. Soon afterwards, they met up and Michael said, “I asked, and it turns out it’s fine”. Patrick responded, “That’s odd, my superior told me it was forbidden. What did you ask?” Michael said, “I asked if it was OK to pray while smoking.” Patrick replied, “That explains it! I asked if it was OK to smoke while praying!”
In addition to polls, surveys are also a common method of persuasion often masquerading as an accurate tally of “scientific data”. The main difference between a poll and a survey is that the former is one single multiple-choice question, while the latter includes multiple questions that can have both objective and subjective elements.
Both methods attempt to gather data on “issues of the day”, however, the veracity of the data is entirely depended upon what and who is asked.
Statistics
Equally shameful is the use of statistics in persuasion. Mark Twain famously quipped, “Figures often beguile me, particularly when I have the arranging of them myself; in which case the remark attributed to Disraeli would often apply with justice and force: ‘There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.’”
In many cases, statistics are the data generated by a poll/survey reduced to numerical value, e.g., percentage of Canadians who approve/disapprove of <fill in the blank>.
Like polls and surveys, statistics are easily manipulated and are of questionable value, particularly if one is arguing from first principles. While related, polls, surveys and statistics are not the same thing: a poll/survey tries to be qualitative, while statistics are quantitative. Perhaps it is best to think of them as different sides of the same coin. Polls, surveys and statistics can be useful in trying to persuade people, but they come with a big caveat: beware their premises, and their methodology,
Experts
Has there ever been any class of people more worthy of derision and disbelief then “experts”? Far too many people these days check their own critical judgement and common sense at the door and defer to someone else simply because they have the title “expert”. Experts are a dime a dozen. If you don’t like what one expert tells you, don’t worry there are plenty more who will sing a completely different song.
Information provided by experts may be valid or may not. Experts are neither neutral observers or all-seeing oracles of objective truth. At best, their opinions are merely one more piece of data that we can choose to weigh in deciding a particular question. As with any sources of data, relying only on one source can be limiting. One should always be curious to what other “experts” might be saying and judge your expert accordingly.
Manipulation versus Persuasion
The most honest forms of persuasion are those forms based upon objective reality, first principles, and reasoned argument. Yes, appeal to emotion can also be a valid persuasion technique, provided that such appeals are honest and not hidden as merely a manipulative dodge to garner sympathy. Appeals to polls/surveys and statistics can have a place, but only if they are properly presented with context and a full awareness of what was asked, who was asked and what was not asked! In other words, we should never assume that a poll/survey or statistic is telling us the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth.
To avoid being manipulated, we need to be independent, critical thinkers, willing to put our partisan political biases aside in favour of the objective truth. We can know that objective truth, not by listening to “experts” or counting polling results, but through our own assessment of the facts, asking the questions that no one else is asking and distinguishing fantasy from reality.